Alvin Flummux wrote:
Good post, I enjoyed reading that.
When the border states become so saturated with migrants that they are Mexican in all but name, do you not think that the cultural influence might be so overwhelming that, beyond just electing pro-Mexican officials, perhaps at least elements
of the Mexican political system itself might bleed into these states? It would largely be a by-product of ongoing demographic trends, the long-term movements of people, with migrants who feel that they are Mexican despite living in another country across the border gradually importing their own political and other societal structures as the density of the migrant population increases.
Could that happen? It would greatly strengthen the arguments of Mexican territorial reclamation groups, which are sure to grow larger and more vocal over the course of the century.
All that said though, no maps will have a chance of being re-drawn until Mexico's internal struggles are put to bed. How that can happen without the USA and Mexico legalising and regulating at least some of those presently-illegal drugs, though, I just don't know.
I think you're absolutely right, Alvin. Whilst I'm certainly no expert on the Mexican political system, I doubt it would hold much sway over the political life of US border states. I think, as you pointed out, the most important factor is that of culture. More specifically, Mexican vs US. If current US policies favouring separation (there's a very interesting debate as to the effect of the attempted 'walling-off' of the Mexican border) and the singling out of Hispanic communities continues, I think we're only going to see more US citizens of Mexican descent identifying more with their Mexican heritage than with their US citizenship. Ironically, the 'victimisation' of Hispanic communities could lead to border states becoming more and more 'Mexican' (I realise I'm using a lot of apostrophes, here. Apologies).
Whilst, much like in the EU, immigration is a major concern and much contemporary political action is aimed at limiting its effects, the fact remains that the US is an incredibly sparsely-populated country, and, like in most of the Western world, it's population growth is slowing (I'm a great sceptic of all these apocalyptic predictions linked to 'explosive population growth'). We already saw the importance of low-wage immigrant communities to lcal US economies last year when (I forget in which state - possibly South Carolina/Tennessee?) fruit crops were left rotting in fields after a mass outflow of Hispanics (illegal AND legal) with the passing of 'stop-and-search' laws that basically meant you could be pulled over and forced to show ID for simply looking a little bit Mexican.
The financial crisis may have slowed the process, but in the next half a century or so, America is going to have to work to try and ATTRACT immigrants to secure its economy can keep running. Could this lead to profound demographic and policy shifts favouring Mexico? Its impossible to tell, but in my opinion, quite possibly. I don't know if that answers your question, Igor. Sorry!
From your post, Alvin, it sounds like you've already read his stuff, but (despite being heavily American-leaning and, as the Anonymous arse-raping of his company Stratfor would lead me to believe, a right dodgy geeza) George Friedman has written some interesting stuff on this matter. Worth checking out if you've not.