US Politics 3

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Moggy** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 11:48 am

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:
Victor Mildew wrote:Don't worry, there's absolutely no way he's going to win!!!!!

Going by the results, it seems a fairly solid ~30% of Republicans are not Trump supporters. Of course, plenty of them will become Trump supporters when it progresses to him against Biden instead of Haley, but I think a big chunk of them will refuse to vote for him.

It's the American equivalent of Tory members voting for Truss to be their leader. What the party members want is not necessarily what the country wants.

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Tomous** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 11:54 am

Moggy wrote:
Oblomov Boblomov wrote:
Victor Mildew wrote:Don't worry, there's absolutely no way he's going to win!!!!!

Going by the results, it seems a fairly solid ~30% of Republicans are not Trump supporters. Of course, plenty of them will become Trump supporters when it progresses to him against Biden instead of Haley, but I think a big chunk of them will refuse to vote for him.

It's the American equivalent of Tory members voting for Truss to be their leader. What the party members want is not necessarily what the country wants.

Yep. Looks like 2.2m have voted in the Republican primaries (with 1.5m for Trump) against 74m Republican votes in 2020.

Trump voters are effectively in a cult and fanatical so more like to turn out for the primaries too I would ague.

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Lex-Man** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 12:09 pm

Trumps ahead in the polls at the moment.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/u ... den-polls/

It could turn around but I honestly think Trump will win.

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Oblomov Boblomov** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 12:09 pm

Tomous wrote:
Moggy wrote:
Oblomov Boblomov wrote:
Victor Mildew wrote:Don't worry, there's absolutely no way he's going to win!!!!!

Going by the results, it seems a fairly solid ~30% of Republicans are not Trump supporters. Of course, plenty of them will become Trump supporters when it progresses to him against Biden instead of Haley, but I think a big chunk of them will refuse to vote for him.

It's the American equivalent of Tory members voting for Truss to be their leader. What the party members want is not necessarily what the country wants.

Yep. Looks like 2.2m have voted in the Republican primaries (with 1.5m for Trump) against 74m Republican votes in 2020.

Trump voters are effectively in a cult and fanatical so more like to turn out for the primaries too I would ague.

Hopefully he's got no chance then. It'll be so immensely satisfying to watch him lose again. I will literally cry with happiness if we get to see him freaking out when it happens.

Edit - Lex

don't do this to us.

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Tomous** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 12:17 pm

Lex-Man wrote:Trumps ahead in the polls at the moment.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/u ... den-polls/

It could turn around but I honestly think Trump will win.

I'm still waiting for that red wave the polls told us was coming in 2022

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **poshrule_uk** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 12:27 pm

I love your confident and hope your right.

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Tomous** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 12:35 pm

My position is Biden wins a fair election without interference. The issue is whether that actually happens....

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Moggy** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 12:41 pm

I'm confident that Biden easily wins the popular vote. Even Clinton easily beat Trump there.

The whole electoral college thing makes things harder to predict though.

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Photek** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 1:05 pm

twitter.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1765278643150872812

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Tomous** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 1:09 pm

Emily Maitlis :wub:

Notice how she's more than happy to spout her bullshit when given a platform with easy questions but as soon as the slightest bit of challenge comes against things she has personally said she gets upset, swears and storms off. Such a snowflake.

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Lex-Man** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 3:23 pm

Moggy wrote:I'm confident that Biden easily wins the popular vote. Even Clinton easily beat Trump there.

The whole electoral college thing makes things harder to predict though.

The electoral college is why I think Trump will win. It's basically designed to give a boast to more rural states so will give Trump a bit of an advantage.

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Hexx** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 3:25 pm

Plus are Republicans in those states going to even pretend to play fair?

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Oblomov Boblomov** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 3:32 pm

Trump got spanked by the EC even harder than he did the popular vote.

True, he winged it against Clinton despite the popular vote, so you never quite know how it'll fall.

Biden had more than seven million people vote for him than Trump in 2020. I know these things are (rightly) considered in proportion and as percentages, but still, seven million. That is a crazy amount of people. Is Trump really winning any of them over? I think the best he can hope for is for them to abstain.

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Moggy** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 3:50 pm

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:Trump got spanked by the EC even harder than he did the popular vote.

True, he winged it against Clinton despite the popular vote, so you never quite know how it'll fall.

Biden had more than seven million people vote for him than Trump in 2020. I know these things are (rightly) considered in proportion and as percentages, but still, seven million. That is a crazy amount of people. Is Trump really winning any of them over? I think the best he can hope for is for them to abstain.

2016:

Clinton: 65.8million votes = 227 electoral college votes

Trump: 62.9million votes = 304 electoral college votes

2020:

Biden: 81.2million votes = 306 electoral college votes

Trump: 74.2million votes = 232 electoral college votes

It's a strawberry floating daft system.

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Lex-Man** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 3:59 pm

So it was about 47.74% of the popular vote and 43% of the electoral college.

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Victor Mildew** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:11 pm

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Oblomov Boblomov** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:45 pm

Lex-Man wrote:So it was about 47.74% of the popular vote and 43% of the electoral college.

The percentages don't quite fall that way, as (believe it or not) there are actually other contenders who receive some of the votes (around three million last time!). But it is worth looking at Trump's records:

2016

46.1% of the popular vote
56.9% of the EC vote (I'm including 'faithless electors')

2020

46.8% of the popular vote
43.1% of the EC vote

He actually increased his vote share in 2020 but suffered a whopping 13.8pp swing in the EC?!

Ridiculous stats that make it difficult to predict what needs to happen for the world to dodge the Orange Twat again.

I think the clearest stat we can look at is Biden's popular vote compared with Clinton's (51.3% to 48.2%). Based on the respective EC votes, you could cut that roughly down the middle and say that Biden needs about ~49.8% of the popular vote to win in 2024. But that relies on an assumption the ECs will cascade in a similar pattern to before, which is certainly not guaranteed.

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Moggy** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:55 pm

Imagine if they (and us!) had a ridiculous system where they just said "whoever gets the most votes wins".

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Cuttooth** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 4:56 pm

It’s hard if you try to make a direct one-to-one relationship between popular vote and electoral college outcome, yeah. But I don’t know what you’d bother since it’ll tell you absolutely nothing!

It’s actually pretty straightforward if you just look at polling at a state level to determine the favourite to win the state and collect 100% of that state’s electoral votes (save for Maine and Nebraska, the freak states).

PostRe: US Politics 3 by **Albert** » Wed Mar 06, 2024 5:18 pm

Probably a stupid question but why can't it just be a straight forward 1 vote = 1 vote. Whoever has the most at the end wins?

US Politics 3

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