GRcade

Analysis will be hugely improved after identification of players as we can start to link patterns, but here are the thoughts for today...

Clarky's voting record shows which this type of tracking has limitations. If we were to simply rely on tracking his votes to determine Clarky's Tribe, he would be determined as Red Tribe!
Albear broke his streak of voting Red Tribe to vote TYEM. This makes me question whether he is on the same team as Clarky and voted tactically today, which would confirm Clarky was at risk and on Pro Village
Curls was the last player to vote, voting for the first time for Pro-village. This leads me to question whether Curls is on TYEM who knew the vote was due to fail today, but could also simply be disengaged or playing tactical
Frank is now the only player to vote for the same tribe (TYEM) in every vote and is thanked for his service
Mommy, Orange and Preezy have voted Pro Village for the last two days.
Frank, Ironhide, Mori, and mic have voted TYEM for the last two days.
Vigilantes received two votes in the last two days, from Clarkman and Tsunade. Clarkman was trolling and misdirecting, but I have no idea why Tsunade voted Vigi today.

If we assume that Clarky is not Vigilantes (and I can't remember right now why the entire forum have decided that), then he is Pro-Village.

Players outside of our team who voted TYEM today (and therefore helped to save Clarky from the Pro Village vote) were:
Albear
Clarkman
Drumstick
Frank
Ironhide
Qikz
satrailes

Due to the tightness of the vote today, it is likely that some of Clarky's tribe were forced to vote to save him today, rather than spread their votes. I would exclude Frank from these suspicions as he votes that way every day and exclude Qikz due to them voting Pro Village in the previous day. That means my team prediction starts with Albear, Clarkman, Drumstick, Frank, Ironhide & satrailes as our prime Pro Village candidates (guessing around a 50% chance). I think that Tsunade's vote today was a bluff and am also including Tsunade on my Pro Village list.

I also believe that the voting patterns of Preezy and Roonmastor suggest they had some knowledge, which would have been held by TYEM and therefore have guessed that they belong to this tribe.

Vigilantes is tough to predict due to the fact that they have been under no apparent pressure to date and therefore have effectively spread their votes. However, Jenuall and OrangeRKN have placed votes for the other three tribes, which leads me to believe that at the moment, they are the main candidates for Vigilantes Tribe.

And if you've made it this far, I apologise. My fiancee caught sight of what I've been doing and said this was the nerdiest thing I've ever done and I should be ashamed of myself.

Here is my prediction as it stands today. It relies somewhat on Clarkman not being Vigilantes, but in a game of social deduction, the forum has decided almost unanimously that he is not, so I've accepted that probability. Even assuming that's right, this absolutely will not be 100% accurate, but it's probably more accurate than guessing at random! I look forward to checking back after the game has completed to see how accurate they turn out to be.

Never be ashamed of your fine statistical work. It may be all wrong but I suppose we will find out tomorrow.

I'd be happy shooting any of the potential pro-village players you highlighted in order to test your theory, apart from Tsunade as everyone is having fun changing her name on the vote ballot and for Dan in particular that must be quite cathartic to watch.

If my predictions are correct, Clarky's tribe failed to avoid the ballot today because in picking satriales, I picked another member of his tribe for him to compete against.

This aged well.

I'm sorry but I can't hold it back anymore...





I'm loving this game man, it's been far and away the most batshit mental forum game I've ever played in. The intrigue!

Our problem is two people are due to die this weekend out of the three players who will have been on the ballot.

Our protection prevents this, but will also reveal to the entire game that Mommy and Chris are Red Tribe, as it is publicly known that we have protection.

Therefore, the proposal is that shoot at ourselves in order to destroy our protection. One of Chris / Mommy will die in the weekend vote (maybe both), but it prevents the entire game knowing that two of our players are Red and the points avalanche and inevitable death for those two players next week.

What do you think? We need to get this in before the outcome of the weekend phase if we are going to proceed with it.

The Clarkman thing.

When it was established that Clarkman wasn't Red Tribe, the following voted him as Pro-village - Preezy, OrangeRKN, Parksey, Jenuall, Qikz, Mommy, Ob Bob, Cuttooth - The vote was tight. I'd say none of these guys are pro-village

These guys voted for TYEM -
Frank.
Hypes,
Rocsteady,
Nun,
SuperChris,
Ironhide,
Mori,
mic

And these voted Red Tribe -

Sprouty,
Strawberry Tsundae,
satriales,
site23,
Albear,
aayl1,
Drumstick,
sawyerpip,
Cora the Explorer,
Vermi,
Clarkman

There were no votes for Vigilantes, which makes things easier.

The next Clarkman vote went like this, again, pretty tight.

Pro-village -
Curls,
Vermilion,
DarkRula,
Mommy,
OrangeRKN,
Roonmastor,
Preezy,
Cora

TYEM -
satriales,
Drumstick,
mic,
Frank,
Mori,
Ironhide,
Albear,
Qikz,
Cuttooth,
Clarkman

Red Tribe -
DML

Vigilantes -
Tsundae

So it would be fair to say that the following are not on Clarkmans team -

Preezy, (Voted twice for Clarkman being Pro-Village)
OrangeRKN, (Voted twice for Clarkman being Pro-Village)
Parksey,
Jenuall,
Qikz,
Mommy, (Voted twice for Clarkman being Pro-Village)
Ob Bob,
Cuttooth,
Curls,
Vermilion,
DarkRula,
Roonmastor,
Cora

I'm looking at the guys that needed to keep Clarkman alive in the TYEM vote -
satriales,
Drumstick,
mic,
Frank,
Mori,
Ironhide,
Albear,
Qikz,
Cuttooth,
Clarkman.

Of these, Satriales, Albear, Drummy & Clarkman all had voted Red Tribe on the first vote, helping to get Clarkman over the line again, in tight voting situations.

Satriales, Albear and Drumstick are all Pro-Village.

A little more evidence to support the case.

In the vote for me to be interrogated, as was pushed by Clarkman, the votes went thus -

Interrogation of Mommy Vote wrote:Pro-Village (7) - Pedz, Mori, Tsunade, Vermi, Roonmastor, SuperChris, Ironhide
TRIBE YER EYES MATE (7) - Frank, OrangeRKN, Jenuall, rocsteady, Nun, Mommy, Ob Bob
Red Tribe (2) - Preezy, albear.
Vigilantes (8) - Drumstick, mic, Cora, Hypes, satriales, Cuttooth, Parksey, Clarkman

After Clarkman strawberry floated the interrogation, he was nailed on to be put up again. The voting was pretty low for this one, but a few comments stood out.

clarkman (6) - Mommy, Oblomov Boblomov, Sprouty, Vermi, Mori, OrangeRKN

Worth noting that both Drummy and Satriales were both active, but neither voted for clarkman to be interrogated.

Drumstick wrote:Sorry, screwed the numbers up a bit there, but yes a 50% with Chris is better than a 33% chance with Clarkman.

A quote from Satriales, as the walls were closing in...

satriales wrote:We still have 50 minutes if we want to lynch Orange instead of Clarkman today

So, Clarkman is up for interrogation.

Drumstick wrote:People this morning were saying Clarkman was either TYEM or Red Tribe

So "People" turns out to be one player. Anyone care to guess who that one player is?



We go on. Satriales then offers this piece of wisdom, trying to tie Mommy and Clarkman together as Red Tribe, to get votes away from Pro-Village.

satriales wrote:Clarkman and Mommy are both on Red Tribe. Mommy won the contest today. He then posted a list of the answers with one deliberate mistake at the end. Then deleted the post because it was too obvious. Red Tribe.

So, a failure to get the team right and we move on to another day...

Satriales is quick to announce

satriales wrote:Clarkman = Tribe Your Eyes
Mommy = Red Tribe

This is challenged by Sprouty with

Sprouty wrote:

satriales wrote:Clarkman = Tribe Your Eyes
Mommy = Red Tribe

If true, satriales = Pro-Village.

and follows with

Sprouty wrote:

satriales wrote:

Sprouty wrote:

satriales wrote:Clarkman = Tribe Your Eyes
Mommy = Red Tribe

If true, satriales = Pro-Village.

Sprouty = Vigilantes

One in four chance you're right.

But if you're openly calling for Clarkman to be TRIBE MY EYES and Mommy as Red Tribe, then you must be Pro-Village or Vigilantes.

And you've placed two votes for Vigilantes (day 1 and day 2) so I highly doubt you're Vigilantes. Which only leaves Pro-Village.

Plus you're claiming I'm Vigilantes, so that doesn't leave you much hiding space in the four tribes.

Would anyone like some guaranteed points tomorrow?

satriales is Pro-Village

It all sounds pretty legit but it gets poo-pooed immediately by...(I hope your guessing game is on point)



and Clarkman, with



In the interrogation vote, both Clarkman and Satriales vote for Satriales early in the day, both before 9am.

Vote to Interrogate wrote:satriales (4) - Sprouty, Mommy, Clarkman, satriales
SuperChris (1) - Frank
Clarkman (1) - Vermi

However Satriales has moved his vote within the hour to Clarkman.

Drummy tries to move attention to Superchris...

Drumstick wrote:Also, why have other people available for re-interrogation such as SuperChris been disregarded so quickly?

He goes on further to move away from Satriales and Clarkman

Drumstick wrote:So there's the Vermi-Chris 2-for-1, Sat's potential slip-up, or Clarkman...

I kind of favour the 2-for-1 and I'm keen to understand why people are so eager to move on from Chris.

Anyway, Clarkman gets the vote again, but more support from Drummy

Drumstick wrote:I don't think Clarkman would vote for Pro-Village and then switching away to another tribe at the last minute, thereby bringing attention it. I also don't believe he would switch to his own tribe which rules out Vigi, and we found out yesterday he wasn't Red Tribe which only leaves one choice.

So the vote goes ahead and Clarkman isn't TYEM. Surprise, Surprise.

Clarkman's secret is now out. He is basically points-in-the-bag for the following day, he just has to make...it......to....the..........vot-BANG!!!

The sweet prince is shot dead! But why? A simple answer, he number was up and Satriales called the kill to prevent anyone getting points from him being outed tonight.

There you go guys. Drummy, Satriales and Albear (he's been very quiet) are all Pro-Village.

It's very good! Pretty convincing too, I reckon!

Great stuff!

I voted yes, but I balls-ed up the last vote, so whatever you think best (which I know isn't helpful)!

mic wrote:I voted yes, but I balls-ed up the last vote, so whatever you think best (which I know isn't helpful)!

It's all good, we all talked ourselves out of the right move last time, but it was a judgement call. All tribes will make mistakes, but at least we're having the right conversations!

No,

I think someone may look to do that anyway. Let's play it cool for the time being.

Well the Satrailes result was a surprise!

It probably helps us a little as he's unlikely to be killed at the weekend. Could we possibly escape with two alive and nobody pick up on the rules?

Memento Mori wrote:

Cuttooth wrote:

Just a reminder to make your daily post for the streak if you are able.

I have an alternative plan.

We let the game play out. We accept the likelihood that we end up being interogated on Monday & Tuesday, then take our shot if it's required after a successfully vote to interogate (literally holding it ready for the second of Dan's reveal), gaining us an additional 2 points.

We will probably fall a few points behind on Tuesday, but our 4 point advantage plus the kill should take us to 6 points, so we'll likely finish Monday still ahead on points, plus gain knowledge of the other tribes.

And if for some bizarre reason, nobody realises that Chris and Mommy must both be Red, even better!

Sprouty wrote:I have an alternative plan.

We let the game play out. We accept the likelihood that we end up being interogated on Monday & Tuesday, then take our shot if it's required after a successfully vote to interogate (literally holding it ready for the second of Dan's reveal), gaining us an additional 2 points.

We will probably fall a few points behind on Tuesday, but our 4 point advantage plus the kill should take us to 6 points, so we'll likely finish Monday still ahead on points, plus gain knowledge of the other tribes.

And if for some bizarre reason, nobody realises that Chris and Mommy must both be Red, even better!

You wouldn't gain 2 points for killing one of your own. This would only apply if a player is killed by another tribe.

Sprouty wrote:

Memento Mori wrote:

Cuttooth wrote:

Just a reminder to make your daily post for the streak if you are able.

Sorry lads. I thought I'd posted yesterday morning. Must not have pressed submit.

Ah crap, thanks for the info Dan.

So... we're going to try wing it?

Memento Mori wrote:Sorry lads. I thought I'd posted yesterday morning. Must not have pressed submit.

Not to worry.

Sprouty wrote:… And if you've made it this far, I apologise. My fiancee caught sight of what I've been doing and said this was the nerdiest thing I've ever done and I should be ashamed of myself. …

They just don’t get it, do they?

Not much to base this on, but I strongly suspect Preezy and Ob Bob of being TYEM, because Preezy ‘admitted’ it and he and Ob’s are always together….

Please all remember to PM Dan to kill Satrailes before 2pm!

It would be a horrid outcome if both Chris and Mommy die in the vote because we forget to target Satrailes.