Are You A Gangster 2: A New Menace - Day 3 - Jessica Fletcher Executed

Shinichi Kudo wrote:
Jacques Clouseau wrote:I was debating the maths involved, but I think we need to take a shot at it.

It's hard to judge the maths involved given we don't know the number of neutral roles currently. I'd speculate that there's at least 1 neutral lurking around.

Based on numbers, my guess is two mafia and one Neutral, but it's pure speculation / guesswork.

Chief Inspector wrote:Just a point if anyone does need to PM me any questions and you still don't have PM privelages I'm going to ask Racoon to enable PMs for everyone if possible, if not just PM me anything you need to today from your main accounts.

Just sent you a test pm and it worked fine for me!

Based on his (StayDead's) previous games I would make the assumption that there is at least one neutral/third-party role out there.

What are the probability numbers like when factoring in that assumption?

Sounds about right, I think it would be hard to balance if there were more than one neutral but I can see him wanting to include one to mix things up again.

Thomas Magnum wrote:Based on his (StayDead's) previous games I would make the assumption that there is at least one neutral/third-party role out there.

What are the probability numbers like when factoring in that assumption?

If there are 3 bad guys, we've got a 30 percent chance of lynching one, though the mafia have a chance to swing the vote so odds are probably worse. The voting patterns could prove useful later on though, which is probably the biggest benefit of holding one today as far as I can see.

Everyone except Jessica Fletcher has created an account and posted.

Judging by the player count, i'd say it was likely that there is 3 goodies, 3 neutrals, and 3 baddies.

Then again, it may be a 6/4 split between good and bad.

3 neutrals seems much doesn't it? I'd hazard a guess at 1 neutral and 2 or 3 Mafia.

Lynch (6) - Magnum, Dick, Marple, Shinichi, Clouseau, Nancy

No Lynch (0) -

Gonna vote for the lynch, though i do fear that there is a significant chance this will not end well (low player count means a very high risk if something goes wrong).

Looks like we're lynching.

To win, do we just need to lynch all of the criminal Mafia scum, or do we need to hit every potential evildoer?

Kouichi Zenigata wrote:To win, do we just need to lynch all of the criminal Mafia scum, or do we need to hit every potential evildoer?

....it tells you in the role PM :slol:

Dick Tracy wrote:
Kouichi Zenigata wrote:To win, do we just need to lynch all of the criminal Mafia scum, or do we need to hit every potential evildoer?

....it tells you in the role PM

Yeah, if you're a good 'un. So while I'm pretty sold on the idea you're on our side, Dick, you've blown my trap apart.

How are we going to decide this lynch then? We've nothing to go on, so is it going to be post count crapshoot like in previous games?

Chief Inspector wrote:Hello

What is the Mafia's win condition?

Kouichi Zenigata wrote:
Chief Inspector wrote:Hello

What is the Mafia's win condition?

Their win condition varies by what other roles are in play, but essentially it works the same as any other game. They win when they are uncontested.

So we've got 4 hours now to decide who we are lynching. Anyone got any ideas beyond a day 1 crap shoot?

Jane Marple wrote:So we've got 4 hours now to decide who we are lynching. Anyone got any ideas beyond a day 1 crap shoot?

I think so.

The OP says we win in death, so we should forego self-preservation and do whatever is most likely to result in us winning.

The last will is an interesting element, but unless there are other aspects to it, this'll be a short game and it'll not have that much of an impact.

We're lynching so that's one dead today, plus Mafia will kill. Add in the GRcade factor and with this being such a small player base, you can be reasonably sure any killing specials will play their hand sooner rather than later. Plus, as things stand, one player is being inactive killed. There's every chance we lose 40% of the active player base during the first day/ night cycle.

If we do, and we don't hit any villains, then we're in real trouble.

We don't know for sure how many Mafia there'll be, but I'm thinking it's unlikely there'd just be one, plus we expect at least one third party role.

The Chief Inspector has listed ten potential roles and we have ten players. It's possible that there are some folk without any role at all and are just vanilla players, but I would expect they'd be a very tiny minority if so - my hunch of this particular gamerunner is, if they've got ideas in mind for roles with unique abilities etc., they're going to want to implement them.

I think we only really have one move.

We should do a roll call.

...don't all rush at once, of course. :roll:

The update post at 10am specifically refers to a 'dastardly duo' so we know that there are 2 mafiosos. I think with this in mind the split is likely:

10 players: 6 Village/2 Mafioso/2 Neutral

With the 2 neutrals being probably a Neutral Evil (Jester/Executioner) and the other a Neutral Killing (probably Arsonist).

I think there are likely to be 2 neutrals in order to weaken a role call as otherwise we'd have quite a small pool of lynch targets if we all chose to claim.

Kouichi Zenigata wrote:The Chief Inspector has listed ten potential roles and we have ten players. It's possible that there are some folk without any role at all and are just vanilla players, but I would expect they'd be a very tiny minority if so - my hunch of this particular gamerunner is, if they've got ideas in mind for roles with unique abilities etc., they're going to want to implement them.

Where are these 10 roles? Are you misreading the night action priority list as confirmation that these are the roles included?

Kouichi Zenigata wrote:...don't all rush at once, of course.

By all means lead the charge. If you suggest a role call then you should probably be happy to reveal your own role first!

My only thought is that the last will mechanic should allow town investigative roles to pass out their results after death without claiming but I do agree that the game is only likely to last for 3//4 cycles so unless they get pretty lucky then it's not something we should rely on for key info. For what it's worth i'd be happy to join you and roleclaim if you claim first.

Are You A Gangster 2: A New Menace - Day 3 - Jessica Fletcher Executed

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